One of my favorite subjects in college was probability and statistics. It intrigued me more when I found out about sports betting and how probability and statistics has been used to predict the most likely outcome of a game. Which got me into sportsbetting. It's not the thrill of the money more it's analyzing the data to pick the correct outcome. So here's my analysis of the Saints/Falcons matchup tonight.
The Falcons (10-1) have a chance to avenge their only loss of the season to the Saints (5-6). Atlanta is 5-0 SU at home this season but only 2-3 ATS at home and haven't won a game more than six points in their own building. These teams played a very even game in Week 10 in New Orleans, with a 31-27 Saints win. It was the Saints fourth straight victory, SU and ATS, over the Falcons. They've won by a field goal in their last two trips to Atlanta. This game is a must win for the Saints who are attempting to become only the second team in league history to make the playoffs after losing its first four games.
The spread for this game is set at +/-3.5 with Atlanta as the favorite. The Falcons sit in 7th in the power ranking at 23.5 and the Saints are tied for 12th with a power rating of 21 giving Atlanta an edge by 2.5 Over the past two seasons, New Orleans is 11-1 against the spread in the second half of the season. Atlanta is 9-23 ATS at home after two or more consecutive wins since 1992.
My pick: Saints +3.5
